Its Our County

New housing should be places for people to live, not a means to build a bypass

The National newspapers have finally got round to headlining the debate on the drastic planning changes this Government is introducing. 

Herefordshire will be affected by these more than virtually anywhere in the country.

 To explain: if things had gone right the County would have had a Development Plan in place by now (called the Local Development Framework, the LDF), to cover the years 2006 to 2026. They haven’t gone right because the plan the Council spent years drawing up was impossible; too many houses for the water, sewage and traffic. In the long consultation which took place last year, people said overwhelmingly that they didn’t like the plan and it was rejected. The Council took the decision to delay the LDF until after the election. Now it is after the election and new plans are now being drawn up, except, they are much the same as the old plans. Housing has been reduced – slightly, and shifted – slightly, but it’s more or less the same with a minimum of 16,200 extra houses to be built by 2031. 

We are asked to consult on this plan – again – by the end of November^ this year. Probably they hope less people will respond and the results will therefore be easier to ignore. 

Word is though, the plan doesn’t stack up. Rumour has it that there is a £200m gap in infrastructure funding and you can easily see why. If 16,000 + extra houses are built they will need a lot of things, water, drainage, schools, hospitals to name but a few and of course, a £100m ++ bypass, which is what it is all about in the first place.  (If you want the evidence for this, look at the Council’s own economic viability assessment at: Council website, go to planning, forward planning, LDF, evidence base, economic viability assessment.  Table 4.2 shows the amount of Community Infrastructure Levy per house that will be required for the council’s plans).   A plan like this will never pass even the most rudimentary economic or other viability tests and will be rejected. Meanwhile time is passing and legislation is changing. If no plan is in place by 2014 the default position will be one of two things, either The Old Plan will come live. Yes you’ve got it, that first plan produced before the election with 18,100 additional houses, rejected by 80% of the population in the consultation, and impossible to work with, because of the lack of water, sewage, schools etc etc. The alternative to this is that developers will put in planning applications pretty much where they want, the government’s New Planning Changes, which some have likened to a Developer’s Charter, means they will get planning permission; regardless of all the considerations planning would normally take into account, the water, sewage, schools, wildlife, views, traffic etc etc. It will probably be decided in the way of the Hampton Bishop 250 houses plus rugby ground passed this month, by councillors, going outside the Plan. Do we want this?

 Presumably it is what the government wants, freedom for enterprise and all that, but, hold on a moment, didn’t we invent planning laws over 70 years ago because we found No Planning Laws didn’t work, it led to sprawl, and any number of social and environmental problems. Wouldn’t No Planning Laws be yet another example of irrational policy swings we suffer from so much in England.

 Lets hope our MPs wake up in time to prevent this bill rushing through. In the meantime we do have to decide on the Herefordshire Plan, regardless of what is happening nationally. Just how much housing do we want in Herefordshire for the next 30 years and where should it go.

 The Council’s case for extra housing is that we need more people to support older people.

 According to their latest study, The Hearn Report (on line at: http://www.herefordshire.gov.uk/docs/Final_Report_(11-07-11-nxi).pdf), in the next 30 years, if there were no in-migration the population would fall – deaths exceed births and there is a small out migration leading to a population decrease of 240 per annum. So here we have it, the fundamental question, should we and can we build houses for in migration and if yes, how many.

 The case for Herefordshire Council’s growth plans is that Herefordshire’s population is slightly older than the national average (about 6% more retired people), meaning there are not enough wage earners to go round, so we need more wage earners to support the old people. They have estimated that to maintain the workforce of today, in 2011, Herefordshire would need an increase in population of 9.1% by 2031 which is 16,600 people or 830 houses p.a. This is just to maintain the current working population, but the Council aim to increase the workforce, so they want more houses than this.

 But how can we ensure that these 30,000 + extra people, which is what it will be by 2031, won’t themselves be in the older age bracket? At the moment the majority of people coming into Herefordshire are indeed from this category.

 The Hearn report also conclude that even without population increase 117 houses p.a. are needed because of more people living alone. But do these figures take into account that single people, after a while, tend to become pairs again. Do they take into account that we may not even be able to afford to live on our own any more, that people living on their own as a matter of choice was a thing of the economic boom times, no longer with us? There are other things they haven’t thought of, older people working longer, older people bringing money into the economy and spending more on leisure and their houses. These will have an effect on employment. Has that been put into the equation, I suspect not.

 It’s Our County > takes the view that we cannot support the extra housing because the Council have openly said of that the reason they want it is to build a bypass. The Council will take the housing infrastructure money, amounting to over £20,000 per house from even those built in Ledbury, Ross and Leominster and use it build a bypass either through Breinton on the west or the Lugg Meadows on the east. Both are wrong for the environmental damage the road will cause, the extra journey time of either route will incur and the financial cost, which is too high. Extra houses in Herefordshire will need infrastructure for themselves; they will need water, sewage, schools, hospitals, libraries, parks, cycle-ways and community centres which will take every bit of the developer money on offer.

 It’s Our County says the plan should build on Herefordshire’s strengths, on its agriculture, its tourism which itself is based on the countryside and attractive villages, and its small businesses, the manufacturing and service industry spread throughout the county. Much could be done for both sectors and be included in the Plan. For example, some long distance bridleways should be put into the plan because despite its rural character Herefordshire is very short of them, if they were planned in a whole horse business would grow up around them. The same with long distance walking routes; our Mortimer Trail was never really finished or promoted, we need it and others like it with accompanying wild camping and wild countryside areas which would bring people into the county.

 So finally if we have to say, regardless that it is putting the cart before the horse, how many houses for the LDF?  In my opinion we could reduce the number by as much as three quarters, with a review in 10 years time. At the moment we do not have the demand, people cannot buy or sell houses, we don’t have the jobs and we don’t have the infrastructure.  I suspect property developers are asking for more houses to suit themselves, to build up land banks as a way of storing money for themselves other than in the banks. Granting planning permission, which is what the LDF will do if it goes ahead as it is, without the possibility of building, leads to planning blight and is a bad thing.

 In ten years time everything will be different, we will look at it again then. A plan for 25 years ahead is not feasible in this time of economic adjustment. None of us know what the world will be like then.

 New houses should be around Hereford and the other market towns, where the services are, and determined on a case by case basis throughout the county. If the services and demand are there, and crucially, the design is right, meaning well insulated low maintenance and attractive houses, then there would be a presumption in favour.

To see Herefordshire’s LDF  go to http://www.herefordshire.gov.uk/housing/planning/24311.asp